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Attention Propagation Nerds
Josh:
Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale
Abstract
Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3#Fig1
Skipmuck:
After slogging through this article, one gets to the bottom:
Naturally, on top of this increase of the baseline terrestrial temperature, there are imposed much larger temperature oscillations caused by standard solar activity cycles of 11 and 350–400 years and terrestrial causes. The terrestrial temperature is expected to grow during maxima of 11 year solar cycles and to decrease during their minima. Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima to occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–2415, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation. These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper.
So, if this is a correct prediction, then the terrestrial temperature should be decreasing during the predicted 2020-2055 mimina? Hmmm.....food for thought for those on the fence when it comes to "Global Warming".
jasmine:
--- Quote from: Skipmuck on July 10, 2019, 0005 UTC ---So, if this is a correct prediction, then the terrestrial temperature should be decreasing during the predicted 2020-2055 mimina? Hmmm.....food for thought for those on the fence when it comes to "Global Warming".
--- End quote ---
i'm 24, and an astronomy major. regardless of the solar flux climate change would still occur.the worst takeaway you or anyone could take from this is that we shouldn't act to reduce carbon emissions during this period of time. quite the contrary because when we'd come out of that minimum the effects of non-action during those years would present a climate disaster not seen since 360 million years ago, well before we as humans existed. i will most likely be alive in 2055 but even if i wasn't i'd care about people who would be. even if one doesn't have kids or grandkids they should care about those who do.
JimIO:
We are run by a bunch of people, who know they will be dead in 20 years.
The first part of that is bad... 8)
Josh:
--- Quote from: Skipmuck on July 10, 2019, 0005 UTC ---After slogging through this article, one gets to the bottom:
Naturally, on top of this increase of the baseline terrestrial temperature, there are imposed much larger temperature oscillations caused by standard solar activity cycles of 11 and 350–400 years and terrestrial causes. The terrestrial temperature is expected to grow during maxima of 11 year solar cycles and to decrease during their minima. Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima to occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–2415, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation. These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper.
So, if this is a correct prediction, then the terrestrial temperature should be decreasing during the predicted 2020-2055 mimina? Hmmm.....food for thought for those on the fence when it comes to "Global Warming".
--- End quote ---
There was the year with no summer in the early 1800s, apparently due to a volcanic eruption. Better get to work on banning volcanos.
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