Technical Topics > Propagation

Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.

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ChrisSmolinski:
This is the paper in question: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf

I was of course skeptical, and still am to some degree. However...

One of the predictors is how the termination event (sudden rise in solar activity) occurs. We apparently are right now seeing just such a predicted event, with the rapid increase in solar flux. While this does not by itself confirm the paper, it is consistent with it.

There is a good explanation here: https://www.amateurradio.com/solar-cycle-25s-fast-progress/

It still is bit premature and optimistic, but the author suggests Cycle 25 could outperform... hope you're all sitting down for this... Cycle 19.

ThaDood:
Well, tell ya what, propagation at night this week has just sucked on the amateur bands. Even down on MW. I usually have to drive pretty close to my QTH to hear my Part #15 AM1620 at night, due to Cuba and Pensacola, FL duking it out on 1620kHz, but not this week. And the HAM's that I do hear on the regular chit-chat FREQ's, (1880Khz, 3810Khz, 3919Khz, 3995Khz, etc.), are bitching up a storm that they have trouble hearing each other. I have to use the preamps on 40M to hear the normal decent 6, 7, upper 0, and Western 5, lands. I just hope for a nice "E" season for 12M, 11M, 10M, and 6M.

BoomboxDX:
Yeah, MW is sucking this season, and HF has a few mornings where you can hear about half of what could be heard 8 years ago, the rest of the mornings are mostly static.

And I don't think that's due to stations going off the air, as I haven't read of Chinese CNR1 jammers going off the air lately.

They are just not heard as well due to the propagation.

NQC:
Hey All.

I figured I’d chime in.

IMHO , when most people think “Solar Cycle “ it seems that the emphasis is on HF.

To me HF in 2021 seems to require a better home station than what you could “ get away with “ 25 or 35 years ago.

There has been a reduction of stations, especially outside of the ham bands and overall, the past cycles have been just “OK “.

At least for me , with all roof top antennas long gone AND all the RF noise in the apt.I am pretty much toast re weak HF. FWIW , AM BCB ain’t such a big bargain either and also requires a decent signal to work .But at least it’s  easier to null noise.Plus if I give up BCB (or occasional stronger HF ) in the apt., I’ve pretty much given up on “in home”radio ,which I refuse to do.

The only way I can really hear anything weak ,on any frequency ,is to set up away from my apt.As I grow older and times have changed, I am somewhat less inclined to attract attention to myself by setting up remotely.Especially late at night .

All this being said, even IF a cycle is overall mediocre, it STILL can have some real “ up” times as well . You just really have to be on top of your game more.

There are modes that are not fully (or at all) cycle dependent ie trans equatorial, gray line, E ,sporadic E cloud, tropo for VHF and up,etc.One could research these as a way around the long haul F modes (F1, F1.5? F2, F3 ?)


But I still will drift out at times , especially  to work AM BCB which is a lot more "subtle" than a big HF antenna and might not be as much “ cycle affected” either .On vacation, at a location that I PAY for , HF would be  more in the mix.

K

BoomboxDX:
^^^^^ You make some good points. As the years progress, even if the sunspots improve it will take more of an antenna setup than would work in 2011 to hear much SWBC, if only because most of the activity is on the other side of the globe from the US. 

Ham radio may or may not be much better, except during contests, when they tend to light up the bands with activity.

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