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Technical Topics => Propagation => Topic started by: RobRich on March 24, 2024, 0117 UTC

Title: Solar Storm 0110 UTC 24 MAR 2024
Post by: RobRich on March 24, 2024, 0117 UTC

There is an ongoing S2 moderate solar radiation storm at 0110z on 3/24. Current planetary Kp index is 5.67.

A strong X1.1 solar flare occurred early 3/23. The resulting coronal mass ejection is expected to reach Earth early to mid 3/25.

More information from NOAA SWPC (https://www.spaceweather.gov/):

Quote

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 24-Mar 26 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 24-Mar 26 2024

             Mar 24       Mar 25       Mar 26
00-03UT       5.67 (G2)    5.00 (G1)    5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    6.67 (G3)    4.00     
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    5.67 (G2)    4.00     
09-12UT       4.00         5.00 (G1)    3.67     
12-15UT       2.67         4.00         3.00     
15-18UT       2.67         3.00         2.33     
18-21UT       5.00 (G1)    3.00         2.33     
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    4.00         3.33     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is expected on 24
Mar due to lingering transient-like and negative polarity CH HSS
effects. Activity will likely increase to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic
storming conditions early to mid 25 Mar with the arrival of a CME that
left the sun on 23 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 24-Mar 26 2024

              Mar 24  Mar 25  Mar 26
S1 or greater   99%     70%     50%

Rationale: S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm conditions are expected
to continue through 24 Mar with S1 (Minor) levels likely continuing on
through 26 Mar.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 23 2024 0133 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 24-Mar 26 2024

              Mar 24        Mar 25        Mar 26
R1-R2           90%           90%           90%
R3 or greater   45%           45%           45%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events, through 26 Mar primarily due to
the flare potential exhibited by AR 3615.