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Technical Topics => Propagation => Topic started by: ChrisSmolinski on May 01, 2018, 2020 UTC

Title: Tracking The Solar Downturn
Post by: ChrisSmolinski on May 01, 2018, 2020 UTC

"Five of the past six months have reported single digit sunspot means; this is roughly similar to the first half of 2008.  However, the downward slope is stronger like cycle 5 of the Dalton Minimum (early 1800s)."

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DcIug7RW0AARFX4.jpg)

Title: Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
Post by: ChrisSmolinski on May 02, 2018, 1304 UTC

From spaceweather.com, emphasis added:

Quote

"Official" forecasts of the solar cycle come from NOAA's Solar Cycle Prediction Panel–a group of experts from NOAA, NASA, the US Air Force, universities and other research organizations. They have been convening at intervals since 1989 to predict the timing and intensity of Solar Max. The problem is, no one really knows how to predict the solar cycle. The most recent iteration of the panel in 2006-2008 compared 54 different methods ranging from empirical extrapolations of historical data to cutting-edge supercomputer models of the sun's magnetic dynamo. None fully described what is happening now.

Human hubris knows no bounds.

Title: Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
Post by: Josh on May 02, 2018, 1657 UTC

When the results don't meet up with the agenda hypothesis, the results are wrong.

Title: Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
Post by: ka1iic on June 20, 2018, 1835 UTC

 It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

 Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.
Richard P. Feynman

Title: Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
Post by: Rob. on June 21, 2018, 1017 UTC

Feynman was an interesting guy. Got a set of his red lecture books on the shelf.

Title: Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
Post by: legis225 on January 26, 2019, 1640 UTC

I am getting ready for the mini ice age.