Abstract. Solar activity (SA) oscillations over the past millennia...

[ka1iic]

I know this is about climate and it is just an abstract but the solar part etc, plays into future propagation.  vgw

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2015-30/


 doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1237-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
   
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Research article
24 Jul 2015
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A revision of this discussion paper was accepted for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Multi-millennial-scale solar activity and its influences on continental tropical climate: empirical evidence of recurrent cosmic and terrestrial patterns
J. Sánchez-Sesma Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico
Received: 02 Jun 2015 – Accepted: 14 Jun 2015 – Published: 24 Jul 2015
Abstract. Solar activity (SA) oscillations over the past millennia are analyzed and extrapolated based on reconstructed solar-related records. Here, simple recurrent models of SA signal are applied and tested. The consequent results strongly suggest: (a) the existence of multi-millennial (~ 9500 years) scale solar oscillations, and (b) their persistence, over at least the last glacial–interglacial cycle. This empirical modelling of solar recurrent oscillations has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward Grand (Super) Minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450). Also, a recurrent linear influence of solar variation on continental tropical climate (CTC) has been assessed for the last 20 kyr, and extrapolated for the next centuries. Taking into account the importance of these estimated SA scenarios a comparison is made with other SA forecasts, and their possible associated astronomical forcing and influences on past and future CTC discussed.

Citation: Sánchez-Sesma, J.: Multi-millennial-scale solar activity and its influences on continental tropical climate: empirical evidence of recurrent cosmic and terrestrial patterns, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1237-1260, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1237-2015, 2015.