Propagation

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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP02
QST de W1AW 
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 13, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

No sunspots were visible on January 1-2 and none on January 4-11.
Our reporting week is January 5-11, so the average daily sunspot
number for that period was zero.

For a look at recent sunspot numbers, check
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt and note the many
zeroes.

Average daily solar flux this week was 72.5, down from 73.1 the week
before. Average planetary A index rose 5 points to 14.3, while
average mid-latitude A index increased from 6.3 to 10.6.

Predicted solar flux is 80 and 82 on January 13-14, 85 on January
15-19, 76 on January 20-25, 74 on January 26-28, 73 on January 29
through February 1, 72 on February 2-7, 74 on February 8, and 76 on
February 9-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 13-14, 5 on January 15,
10 on January 16, 20 on January 17-19, 18 on January 20, 20 on
January 21-22, 10 on January 23, 5 on January 24-26, then 12, 15, 7,
10 and 12 on January 27-31, then 16, 18, 20, 16, 12 and 5 on
February 1-6, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on February 7-10, 5 on February
11-12, then 25, 20, 25 and 18 on February 13-16, and 20 on February
17-18.

This from "Sky and Telescope" regarding our spotless Sun:

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/the-spotless-sun/

And, another:

https://www.sott.net/article/339435-Sunspots-vanish-space-weather-continues

From Jon Jones, N0JK:

"Good sporadic-E on 6 meters January 8, 9 and 10th, 2017.

"Best probably day so far January 9, 6 meters was open from coast to
coast with some double hop Es worked from the west coast to 8 land
confirmed by this spot:

"W6XK  17/01/09 1958Z  50276.0 EN81LI CM97 Copied in OH  N8EHW

"K7JA DM03 notes 10 hours of sporadic-E on 6 meters, Jan. 9.

"December, 2016 was so poor. Not sure yet why January, 2017 is so
much better, but will roll with it.

"I worked AI1K DM34 and KA7JOI DM54 with just a 10 W SSB MFJ-9406,
and mag mount whip on the car from the KC VA Hospital parking lot on
a short break from work about 1850z Jan. 9. Both stations were very
strong via sporadic-E on 6. KA7JOI so loud he sounded like was just
a few cars away!  K5SW observed Jan. 9 was 'like summer E-skip on
6."'

NASA released an update on the current solar cycle, but there is no
new information, except two links.

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

The updated links:

https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=19197261

https://solarprobe.gsfc.nasa.gov/

From OK1HH, F.K. Janda:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 13 to February
8, 2017:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on January 16, 26
Mostly quiet on January 13, 24-25
Quiet to unsettled on January 14-15, 23, 29, 31, February 5
Quiet to active on January 17, 20, 22, 27, 30, February 3-4, 6, 8
Active to disturbed on January 18-19, 21, 28, February 1-2, 7

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on
January 18-20, (21-24,) 26, (31,) February (1-5,) 6-7

"Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
enhancement. - Observed indicia of upcoming MAJOR CHANGES in solar
activity!  Therefore, the current forecast is less reliable.

"Beware of 'Paraskavedekatriaphobia' tomorrow. "

I am particularly pleased to see the OK1HH warning about
Paraskavedekatriaphobia - the fear of Friday the 13 - something we
don't hear much about anymore.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions
for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for January 5 through 11, 2017 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 73.3, 72, 72, 71.5,
71.2, 72.7, and 74.5, with a mean of 72.5. Estimated planetary A
indices were 18, 16, 20, 16, 12, 10, and 8, with a mean of 14.3.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 14, 14, 11, 8, 5, and 7,
with a mean of 10.6.
NNNN
/EX

[BoomboxDX]

Just by using my portables -- the same radios I've been using since 2011 or so (DX-398, DX-390, RFB-45 for the most part; with the same 25 foot indoor antenna) -- conditions have been more of less abysmal since some time last year.

31 meters, 25 meters are usually dead except for Radio Havana and perhaps Radiobras on 11780. Brother Stair often makes his nightly appearance, and even that reception is less than it used to be. 49 meters used to be full (or close to it) during the evening, now even it is mostly empty most nights.

I haven't DXed much during early morning, perhaps there is better reception then and I've just missed it.

In 2011, 2012, and 2013 I was receiving all sorts of stuff on the SW bands, night and afternoon as well as morning. It wasn't like it was in the 80's and 90's, but still pretty active.

And even though were in the sunspot lull, MW isn't all that much better, ironically.

I don't monitor the ham bands as much as I did over a year ago, so perhaps they're better than usual... just can't say.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm DXing on Mars.

[Josh]

I dunno about lousy props, An ale net I monitor on a pretty much daily basis has catches from Alaska, Guam, Italy, Hawaii, PR, Japan, The Azores, Engerlund, Diego Garcia, and several lower 48. Most of them show up every day, and my receiving setup is very modest. Croughton just showed up at 1737Z.