Author Topic: Tracking The Solar Downturn  (Read 283 times)

Offline ChrisSmolinski

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Tracking The Solar Downturn
« on: May 01, 2018, 2020 UTC »
"Five of the past six months have reported single digit sunspot means; this is roughly similar to the first half of 2008.  However, the downward slope is stronger like cycle 5 of the Dalton Minimum (early 1800s)."

Chris Smolinski
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Offline ChrisSmolinski

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Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2018, 1304 UTC »
From spaceweather.com, emphasis added:

Quote
"Official" forecasts of the solar cycle come from NOAA's Solar Cycle Prediction Panel–a group of experts from NOAA, NASA, the US Air Force, universities and other research organizations. They have been convening at intervals since 1989 to predict the timing and intensity of Solar Max. The problem is, no one really knows how to predict the solar cycle. The most recent iteration of the panel in 2006-2008 compared 54 different methods ranging from empirical extrapolations of historical data to cutting-edge supercomputer models of the sun's magnetic dynamo. None fully described what is happening now.

Human hubris knows no bounds.
Chris Smolinski
Westminster, MD
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NRD 545 / netSDR / AFE822x / AirSpy HF+ / 670 ft horizontal loop / 500 ft northeast beverage / 250 ft west-south-west beverage / 250 ft south beverage / 43mb sloping folded dipole / Crossed Parallel Loop

Offline Josh

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Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2018, 1657 UTC »
When the results don't meet up with the agenda hypothesis, the results are wrong.

Offline ka1iic

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Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2018, 1835 UTC »
 It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

 Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.
Richard P. Feynman

73 Vince
KA1IIC

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Offline Σ

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Re: Tracking The Solar Downturn
« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2018, 1017 UTC »
Feynman was an interesting guy. Got a set of his red lecture books on the shelf.
Σ
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