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Author Topic: Attention Propagation Nerds  (Read 374 times)

Online Josh

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Attention Propagation Nerds
« on: July 06, 2019, 2212 UTC »
Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale


Abstract

Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3#Fig1
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Offline Skipmuck

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2019, 0005 UTC »
After slogging through this article, one gets to the bottom:
Naturally, on top of this increase of the baseline terrestrial temperature, there are imposed much larger temperature oscillations caused by standard solar activity cycles of 11 and 350–400 years and terrestrial causes. The terrestrial temperature is expected to grow during maxima of 11 year solar cycles and to decrease during their minima. Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima to occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–2415, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation. These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper.

So, if this is a correct prediction, then the terrestrial temperature should be decreasing during the predicted 2020-2055 mimina? Hmmm.....food for thought for those on the fence when it comes to "Global Warming".
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Offline jasmine

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2019, 0301 UTC »
So, if this is a correct prediction, then the terrestrial temperature should be decreasing during the predicted 2020-2055 mimina? Hmmm.....food for thought for those on the fence when it comes to "Global Warming".

i'm 24, and an astronomy major. regardless of the solar flux climate change would still occur.the worst takeaway you or anyone could take from this is that we shouldn't act to reduce carbon emissions during this period of time. quite the contrary because when we'd come out of that minimum the effects of non-action during those years would present a climate disaster not seen since 360 million years ago, well before we as humans existed. i will most likely be alive in 2055 but even if i wasn't i'd care about people who would be. even if one doesn't have kids or grandkids they should care about those who do.

Offline JimIO

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2019, 1659 UTC »
We are run by a bunch of people, who know they will be dead in 20 years.
The first part of that is bad...    8)










« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 1702 UTC by JimIO »

Online Josh

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2019, 1730 UTC »
After slogging through this article, one gets to the bottom:
Naturally, on top of this increase of the baseline terrestrial temperature, there are imposed much larger temperature oscillations caused by standard solar activity cycles of 11 and 350–400 years and terrestrial causes. The terrestrial temperature is expected to grow during maxima of 11 year solar cycles and to decrease during their minima. Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima to occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–2415, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation. These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper.

So, if this is a correct prediction, then the terrestrial temperature should be decreasing during the predicted 2020-2055 mimina? Hmmm.....food for thought for those on the fence when it comes to "Global Warming".

There was the year with no summer in the early 1800s, apparently due to a volcanic eruption. Better get to work on banning volcanos.
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Offline JimIO

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2019, 1748 UTC »
"There was the year with no summer in the early 1800s, apparently due to a volcanic eruption. Better get to work on banning volcanos."

And nuclear weapons, they could screw up the 'weather' and propagation.





« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 1750 UTC by JimIO »

Online Josh

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2019, 1855 UTC »
"There was the year with no summer in the early 1800s, apparently due to a volcanic eruption. Better get to work on banning volcanos."

And nuclear weapons, they could screw up the 'weather' and propagation.

lol
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Offline Skipmuck

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2019, 2109 UTC »
After slogging through this article, one gets to the bottom:
Naturally, on top of this increase of the baseline terrestrial temperature, there are imposed much larger temperature oscillations caused by standard solar activity cycles of 11 and 350–400 years and terrestrial causes. The terrestrial temperature is expected to grow during maxima of 11 year solar cycles and to decrease during their minima. Furthermore, the substantial temperature decreases are expected during the two grand minima to occur in 2020–2055 and 2370–2415, whose magnitudes cannot be yet predicted and need further investigation. These oscillations of the estimated terrestrial temperature do not include any human-induced factors, which were outside the scope of the current paper.

So, if this is a correct prediction, then the terrestrial temperature should be decreasing during the predicted 2020-2055 mimina? Hmmm.....food for thought for those on the fence when it comes to "Global Warming".

There was the year with no summer in the early 1800s, apparently due to a volcanic eruption. Better get to work on banning volcanos.

Other large volcanic eruptions (with VEIs at least 4) around this time were:

1808, the 1808 mystery eruption (VEI 6) in the southwestern Pacific Ocean
1812, La Soufrière on Saint Vincent in the Caribbean
1812, Awu in the Sangihe Islands, Dutch East Indies
1813, Suwanosejima in the Ryukyu Islands, Japan
1814, Mayon in the Philippines
These eruptions had built up a substantial amount of atmospheric dust. As is common after a massive volcanic eruption, temperatures fell worldwide because less sunlight passed through the stratosphere.

According to a 2012 analysis by Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, the 1815 Tambora eruption caused a temporary drop in the Earth's average land temperature of about 1 °C. Smaller temperature drops were recorded from the 1812–1814 eruptions.

The Earth had already been in a centuries-long period of global cooling that started in the 14th century. Known today as the Little Ice Age, it had already caused considerable agricultural distress in Europe. The Little Ice Age's existing cooling was exacerbated by the eruption of Tambora, which occurred near the end of the Little Ice Age.

This period also occurred during the Dalton Minimum (a period of relatively low solar activity), specifically Solar Cycle 6, which ran from December 1810 to May 1823. May 1816 in particular had the lowest sunspot number (0.1) to date since record keeping on solar activity began. The lack of solar irradiance during this period was exacerbated by atmospheric opacity from volcanic dust.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 2144 UTC by Skipmuck »
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Offline Skipmuck

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2019, 2142 UTC »
So, if this is a correct prediction, then the terrestrial temperature should be decreasing during the predicted 2020-2055 mimina? Hmmm.....food for thought for those on the fence when it comes to "Global Warming".

i'm 24, and an astronomy major. regardless of the solar flux climate change would still occur.the worst takeaway you or anyone could take from this is that we shouldn't act to reduce carbon emissions during this period of time. quite the contrary because when we'd come out of that minimum the effects of non-action during those years would present a climate disaster not seen since 360 million years ago, well before we as humans existed. i will most likely be alive in 2055 but even if i wasn't i'd care about people who would be. even if one doesn't have kids or grandkids they should care about those who do.

My wording on the comment "on the fence" was selected so as not to stir up the already high level of intensity regarding the pros and cons of climate change. I have never been a denier that the average temperature of the earth has been increasing at a rate greater than that expected during a time frame where there are no observable and clearly documented natural geographical events to account for the increase. I take it as a no-brainer that the beliefs of the overwhelming majority of climate scientists are FAR superior to that of the more virulent conservative talk show hosts.  As to the use of fossil fuels and their impact on the increase of worldwide temperatures ...yes....there is more than sufficient evidence that the burning of fossil fuels does increase the C02 levels in the atmosphere....that I also do not deny. But the scenarios are endless and I do not have the easy answer for the generations that will likely be affected by the end game if things are not dealt with now. The worst scenario is that a global cooling effect caused by a reduction in the solar radiation levels during the predicted solar minima of 2020-2055, would be a post 2055 acceleration of the worldwide temperature increase due to the combined resurgence of solar radiation and increased long term CO2 levels.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 2145 UTC by Skipmuck »
Please QSL to poorbrookking@aol.com. Greatly Appreciated!
QTH:Springfield, MA
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Online Josh

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2019, 2208 UTC »
And some dissent for the "science to the agenda/warmers";
"The failure of temperatures to continue to rise in accordance with alarmist model predictions has left the alarm-promoting guys at NASA and NOAA without fodder for their former annual “hottest year ever!!!” press releases."
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2019-7-3-the-greatest-scientific-fraud-of-all-time-part-xxiii
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Offline JimIO

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2019, 2302 UTC »
I guess you didn't hear we just had the hottest June in the history of the planet.
It's not just about temperature either. Now we have compound flood events and more.

https://www.bradblog.com/audio/greennews/GNR_071119.mp3




« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 0100 UTC by JimIO »

Offline i_hear_you

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2019, 0248 UTC »
If we can dramatically reduce the populations on the continents other than North America, we will make a big dent in man made global warming, if it is in fact a thing. NASA and the NOAA need to stop dragging their heels and start the conversation.

Offline JimIO

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2019, 0358 UTC »
 NASA and NOAA are trying to get the message out but they are being out shouted by right wing blowhards.

Offline i_hear_you

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2019, 1435 UTC »
I have yet to hear anyone at NASA or the NOAA talking about the need to reduce the number of third-world polluters.

Offline JimIO

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Re: Attention Propagation Nerds
« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2019, 1509 UTC »
Maybe you could share some information that you have about third-world polluters and where you got that information from?