We seek to understand and document all radio transmissions, legal and otherwise, as part of the radio listening hobby. We do not encourage any radio operations contrary to regulations. Always consult with the appropriate authorities if you have questions concerning what is permissable in your locale.

Author Topic: Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.  (Read 679 times)

Offline ThaDood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 667
  • Karma: +10/-2
  • Likely, not where you are.
    • View Profile
    • Extreme Part #15!
    • Email
Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.
« on: August 19, 2020, 1806 UTC »
Ya know... After the let-down from the last Solar Cycle 24, and all the predictions for at least the last decade that say that Cycle 25 will just suck, I'll believe this prediction when Type O Negative does a cover of Madonna's, Like A Virgin. https://www.onallbands.com/%ef%bb%bfscientists-forecast-that-solar-cycle-25-could-actually-be-epic-for-ham-radio-operators/     (I would have to admit that the preceding Type O Negative feat would, at the very least, be amusing.)
When asked about White Supremacy, I do not believe in it, since most white people that I know are very much mediocre. Therefore, I believe in White Mediocracy.

Offline ChrisSmolinski

  • Administrator
  • Marconi Class DXer
  • *****
  • Posts: 27012
  • Karma: +83/-47
  • Westminster, MD USA
    • View Profile
    • Black Cat Systems
Re: Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2020, 1844 UTC »
Quote
Using (discrete) Hilbert transforms on 270 years of
(monthly) sunspot numbers to robustly identify the so-called “termination” events, landmarks marking the
start and end of sunspot and magnetic activity cycles, we extract a relationship between the temporal
spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles

I'll take Torturing The Data for $1,000 Alex.
Chris Smolinski
Westminster, MD
eQSLs appreciated! csmolinski@blackcatsystems.com
netSDR / AFE822x / AirSpy HF+ / KiwiSDR / 900 ft Horz skyloop / 500 ft NE beverage / 250 ft V Beam / 58 ft T2FD / 120 ft T2FD / 300 ft south beverage / 43m, 20m, 10m  dipoles / Crossed Parallel Loop / Discone in a tree

Offline BoomboxDX

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 716
  • Karma: +5/-0
    • View Profile
Re: Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2020, 0157 UTC »
Well, so far, Cycle 25 is sucking, if that's any indication.

PS, Type O is no more. Singer / bassist Peter Steele passed away about 10 or so years ago, RIP.
An AM radio Boombox DXer.
+ GE SRIII, PR-D5 & TRF on MW.
The usual Realistic culprits on SW (and a Panasonic).

Offline ChrisSmolinski

  • Administrator
  • Marconi Class DXer
  • *****
  • Posts: 27012
  • Karma: +83/-47
  • Westminster, MD USA
    • View Profile
    • Black Cat Systems
Re: Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2020, 2316 UTC »
Well, so far, Cycle 25 is sucking, if that's any indication.

Meet the new solar cycle, same as the old solar cycle.
Chris Smolinski
Westminster, MD
eQSLs appreciated! csmolinski@blackcatsystems.com
netSDR / AFE822x / AirSpy HF+ / KiwiSDR / 900 ft Horz skyloop / 500 ft NE beverage / 250 ft V Beam / 58 ft T2FD / 120 ft T2FD / 300 ft south beverage / 43m, 20m, 10m  dipoles / Crossed Parallel Loop / Discone in a tree

Offline EricPeterson

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 33
  • Karma: +0/-0
  • Warren county VA (Shenandoah Valley)
  • website in progress...
    • View Profile
    • Old engineer but new at this
    • Email
Re: Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2020, 1239 UTC »
I'll take Torturing The Data for $1,000 Alex.

Not only that, but they are  using your RF torture chamber.

Offline ChrisSmolinski

  • Administrator
  • Marconi Class DXer
  • *****
  • Posts: 27012
  • Karma: +83/-47
  • Westminster, MD USA
    • View Profile
    • Black Cat Systems
Re: Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2020, 1927 UTC »
This is the paper in question: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf

I was of course skeptical, and still am to some degree. However...

One of the predictors is how the termination event (sudden rise in solar activity) occurs. We apparently are right now seeing just such a predicted event, with the rapid increase in solar flux. While this does not by itself confirm the paper, it is consistent with it.

There is a good explanation here: https://www.amateurradio.com/solar-cycle-25s-fast-progress/

It still is bit premature and optimistic, but the author suggests Cycle 25 could outperform... hope you're all sitting down for this... Cycle 19.
Chris Smolinski
Westminster, MD
eQSLs appreciated! csmolinski@blackcatsystems.com
netSDR / AFE822x / AirSpy HF+ / KiwiSDR / 900 ft Horz skyloop / 500 ft NE beverage / 250 ft V Beam / 58 ft T2FD / 120 ft T2FD / 300 ft south beverage / 43m, 20m, 10m  dipoles / Crossed Parallel Loop / Discone in a tree

Offline ThaDood

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 667
  • Karma: +10/-2
  • Likely, not where you are.
    • View Profile
    • Extreme Part #15!
    • Email
Re: Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2020, 0726 UTC »
Well, tell ya what, propagation at night this week has just sucked on the amateur bands. Even down on MW. I usually have to drive pretty close to my QTH to hear my Part #15 AM1620 at night, due to Cuba and Pensacola, FL duking it out on 1620kHz, but not this week. And the HAM's that I do hear on the regular chit-chat FREQ's, (1880Khz, 3810Khz, 3919Khz, 3995Khz, etc.), are bitching up a storm that they have trouble hearing each other. I have to use the preamps on 40M to hear the normal decent 6, 7, upper 0, and Western 5, lands. I just hope for a nice "E" season for 12M, 11M, 10M, and 6M.
When asked about White Supremacy, I do not believe in it, since most white people that I know are very much mediocre. Therefore, I believe in White Mediocracy.

Offline BoomboxDX

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 716
  • Karma: +5/-0
    • View Profile
Re: Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.
« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2021, 0413 UTC »
Yeah, MW is sucking this season, and HF has a few mornings where you can hear about half of what could be heard 8 years ago, the rest of the mornings are mostly static.

And I don't think that's due to stations going off the air, as I haven't read of Chinese CNR1 jammers going off the air lately.

They are just not heard as well due to the propagation.
An AM radio Boombox DXer.
+ GE SRIII, PR-D5 & TRF on MW.
The usual Realistic culprits on SW (and a Panasonic).