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Author Topic: Solar physicist sees global cooling ahead (propagation and Sun spots )  (Read 5460 times)

Offline ka1iic

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Forgive me for the fact that this came from a 'Climate Change' blog but this study may lead to a more accurate way to predict Sun spots and if this study is correct so far don't look for a much better solar maximum (propagation) than we saw this last time around. <sigh> vgw
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From: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/09/solar-physicist-sees-global-cooling-ahead/

Solar physicist sees global cooling ahead

Anthony Watts / 5 days ago August 9, 2016   

Via the GWPF: Recent research by Professor Valentina Zharkova (Northumbria University) and colleagues has shed new light on the inner workings of the Sun. If correct, this new discovery means that future solar cycles and variations in the Sun’s activity can be predicted more accurately.

The research suggests that the next three solar cycles will see solar activity reduce significantly into the middle of the century, producing conditions similar to those last seen in the 1600s – during the Maunder Minimum. This may have implications for temperatures here on Earth. Future solar cycles will serve as a test of the astrophysicists’ work, but some climate scientists have not welcomed the research and even tried to suppress the new findings.
New Solar Research Raises Climate Questions, Triggers Attacks

To most of us the sun seems unchanging. But if you observe its surface, it is seething with vast explosions and ejections. This activity has its origin in intense magnetic fields generated by swirling currents in the sun’s outer layer – scientists call it the solar dynamo.

It produces the well-known 11-year solar cycle which can be seen as sunspots come and go on the sun’s surface.

But models of the solar dynamo have only been partially successful in predicting the solar cycle – and that might be because a vital component is missing.

After studying full-disc images of the sun’s magnetic field, Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University and colleagues, discovered that the sun’s dynamo is actually made of two components – coming from different depths inside the sun.

The interaction between these two magnetic waves either amplifies solar activity or damps it down. Professor Zharkova’s observations suggest we are due for a prolonged period of low solar activity.

    Professor Valentina Zharkova:

    We will see it from 2020 to 2053, when the three next cycles will be very reduced magnetic field of the sun. Basically what happens is these two waves, they separate into the opposite hemispheres and they will not be interacting with each other, which means that resulting magnetic field will drop dramatically nearly to zero. And this will be a similar conditions like in Maunder Minimum.

    What will happen to the Earth remains to be seen and predicted because nobody has developed any program or any models of terrestrial response – they are based on this period when the sun has maximum activity — when the sun has these nice fluctuations, and its magnetic field [is] very strong. But we’re approaching to the stage when the magnetic field of the sun is going to be very, very small.

She suggests it could be a repeat of the so-called Maunder Minimum – a period in the 17th century with little solar activity that may have influenced a cooling on Earth.

    Whatever we do to the planet, if everything is done only by the sun, then the temperature should drop similar like it was in the Maunder Minimum. At least in the Northern hemisphere, where this temperature is well protocoled and written. We didn’t have many measurements in the Southern hemisphere, we don’t know what will happen with that, but in the Northern hemisphere, we know it’s very well protocoled. The rivers are frozen. There are winters and no summers, and so on.

    So we only hope because these Maunder Minima will be shorter, the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century was about 65 years, the Maunder Minimum which we expect will be lasting not longer than 30-35 years.

Of course things are not the same as they were in the 17th century – we have a lot more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. And it will be interesting to see how the terrestrial and the solar influences play out.

This is promising research – a new insight into our sun with predictions as to its future behavior, yet Professor Zharkova relates than some climatologists resented her discovery.

    Professor Valentina Zharkova: 

    Some of them were welcoming and discussing. But some of them were quite — I would say — pushy. They were trying to actually silence us. Some of them contacted the Royal Astronomical Society, demanding, behind our back, that they withdraw our press release. The Royal Astronomical Society replied to them and CCed to us and said, ‘Look, this is the work by the scientists who we support, please discuss this with them.’ We had about 8 or 10 exchanges by email, when I tried to prove my point, and I’m saying, I’m willing to look at what you do, I’m willing to see how our results we produced and what the sun has explained to us. So how this is transformed into climate we do not produce; we can only assume it should be. So we’re happy to work with you, and add to your data our results. So don’t take the sunspots which you get, we can give you our curve. Work with our curve. So they didn’t want to.

Professor Zharkova’s work may have significantly improved our ability to forecast solar activity. If we do enter a new Maunder Minimum, then we are bound to discover new things about our sun and its influences on our climate.
73 Vince
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Offline ff

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Forgive me for the fact that this came from a 'Climate Change' blog but this study may lead to a more accurate way to predict Sun spots and if this study is correct so far don't look for a much better solar maximum (propagation) than we saw this last time around. <sigh> vgw
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This is promising research – a new insight into our sun with predictions as to its future behavior, yet Professor Zharkova relates than some climatologists resented her discovery.

    Professor Valentina Zharkova: 

    Some of them were welcoming and discussing. But some of them were quite — I would say — pushy. They were trying to actually silence us. Some of them contacted the Royal Astronomical Society, demanding, behind our back, that they withdraw our press release. The Royal Astronomical Society replied to them and CCed to us and said, ‘Look, this is the work by the scientists who we support, please discuss this with them.’ We had about 8 or 10 exchanges by email, when I tried to prove my point, and I’m saying, I’m willing to look at what you do, I’m willing to see how our results we produced and what the sun has explained to us. So how this is transformed into climate we do not produce; we can only assume it should be. So we’re happy to work with you, and add to your data our results. So don’t take the sunspots which you get, we can give you our curve. Work with our curve. So they didn’t want to.

Professor Zharkova’s work may have significantly improved our ability to forecast solar activity. If we do enter a new Maunder Minimum, then we are bound to discover new things about our sun and its influences on our climate.

Great article Vince!  Typical behavior from the Algore types though. They won't rationally discuss nor accept any evidence that disturbs their religious views, preferring instead to jam their fingers in their ears and shriek "the science is settled!"  We all have a right to our personal paradigms but it pisses me off to see their vicious attempts to silence opposing viewpoints.  This is 'Murica, dammit!
Hailing from the upstate boondocks region of the progressive paradise which once was New York State

Offline Pigmeat

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Fred, I know you're old enough to remember the great "Ice Age Debate" from the mid-70's thought the mid-80's, Vince, I'm not sure about you, but the winters in that decade were brutal, and the talk of a new ice age was all the rage. In the winter of '77/'78 the bottom really dropped out, snow on the ground over 85% the lower 48 and there were sub-zero temps for weeks across much of the country.

In mid December of '77 it my HS buddy Mike musters out of the Army and starts heading home. He's got a girlfriend in Syracuse so he heads there first. He spends a couple of weeks, gets on the Greyhound for Buffalo where he's supposed to switch over to another bus to head south and home. He's hanging around the bus station and he meets this guy. They start talking and they decide to head to the nearest bar. The guy says, "I've got to piss, let's duck in the alley, you keep watch." Mike, being Mike, says "Ok". Needless to say the guy pulls a gun as soon as Mike's back is turned and takes everything he has. Mike is distraught, he doesn't know what to do, the weather has started to turn to Hell and the snow starts falling in like crazy. He goes back the bus station, reports it to a cop and manages to borrow about 5 bucks from a guy working there.

The cop tells him there's a shelter nearby and a bad storm coming. Mike heads there and gets in. What no one realizes is this storm is about to dump 4-6 ft. of snow on Buffalo and much higher amounts where the bands are coming off the lake. Mike didn't know how shelters work. When the storm passes, it's time to get out until the afternoon. He's out walking the streets, wading through snow, he's hungry, and he's got the five bucks, but nothing is open, he's eating snow to stay hydrated, and he's at a loss, freezing and not sure that he's going to make it until the afternoon. The only action he see's out on the streets are snowplows and the occasional cop car following looking for looters. This gives Mike has his brainstorm.

About 100 yards up the street is a department store. On the side he's coming up from he can see dumpsters in an alley. Next to them are a stack of snow covered wooden pallets. Mike pulls one out of the pile, walks around to the front of the store and flings it through the front window. He then sits down in the doorway to wait for the cops. They finally show up, ask him why he did it, and he says, "Jail has got to be better than freezing to death."

Mike did his 90 days for destruction of property. His girlfriend picked him and drove him home on nice, warm, early April day. I'd like to say it ended well, but Mike died in a freak car accident later that summer, just before his 21st birthday. I still miss him. RIP Mike, you crazy fugger.

Offline Josh

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When the results from your algorerythm don't meet up with reality, reality is wrong.
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Offline ka1iic

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Heck I remember the snows in the 1950's for goodness sake...

I have seen snow and ice rip out steel bridges and snow piled up to 14 feet high in the center of the roads...  I'm from Maine remember... Miami County Ohio only has mild snow storms compared to what I remember only 5 years ago in Maine...

I also remember teachers telling us kids in schools in the late 50's into the 60's about the next ice age...

The Sun works in cycles just like everything else...  it is what it is...

Now to get back with my latest 'green design'...  a solar powered electric chair...  Or as old Tom Edison called it; "the hot Squat"...
73 Vince
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Offline foxd

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I remember the blizzard of 78 and how brutal it was, however I also looked at what the scientists were saying at the time.  The whole coming ice age thing was a media creation based on some rather shaky articles which cited "unnamed climatic Cassandras".  We have known increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was going to warm the Earth and have known so for well over a hundred years, it is well established physics.

I'm not planning to go into how I know this, but the professional global warming deniers know that global warming is happening, we are the cause of it and they plan to profit from it.

As for sites like WUWT, consider that Anthony has people like Lord Christopher Monckton writing for him.  Monckton is so bizarre that he was at one time mistaken for a character created by Sasha Baron Cohen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w833cAs9EN0

Offline Pigmeat

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I often compare Al Fansome to Borat.

I agree with you for the most part, it's the fact that accurate climatic records only go back about a century and a half that bothers me. Tree rings and ice cores help, but the regions where the latter come from are limited and localized. Tree rings can be a bit of match game and they're limited

Generally, I agree the world is warming up. The overall cause I'm not completely sold on. The world was much warmer in antiquity, and after a brief cooling, again for most of the medieval period. We wander into two "Little Ice Ages" between 1300 CE and roughly 1850 CE with erratic warming periods between the two.  As the latter warming begins at roughly the same time as the early decades of the Industrial Revolution in the West and then only in limited regions, I think too much emphasis is being put industrialization and fossil fuels that latter drove it as the cause. Outside of the developed world, the mass of humanity still live and produce in pre-industrial conditions. I'm not ready to go running down the streets shouting "The anthropocene is coming!" until I know a bit more. I've never been afraid to say "I don't know" when it comes to causes of things before the evidence is in.

It wasn't industry 700 CE that warmed things back up, everyone was, by and large, dirt farmers in the era. The same in antiquity, things started warming up at the end of the Younger Dryas, when most of us were still hunter gathers and continued until roughly 350 CE with some minor volcanic induced burps from time to time that drove temps down.

However, if I were advising the young, I'd tell them to avoid putting their money into beachfront property until the ocean decides how far up country it's going to go.

Offline MDK2

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However, if I were advising the young, I'd tell them to avoid putting their money into beachfront property until the ocean decides how far up country it's going to go.

One of my high school classmates was a guy with sunbleached hair, always tan, and always wearing California beach fashions like those sold by OP. Oh, and of course his car had various surf related bumper stickers. His senior yearbook quote was "Denver has no beach!" He just needs to give it some more time. It had a beach once millions of years ago, it can again.
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Offline ka1iic

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Climate Change is very real, it is and has been part of living on this planet since the beginning. If it wasn't for Climate Change we humans wouldn't even exist today, that's based on reality.

Now what the Algore types are screaming about... not so...  Al the big bore is setting himeslf up to make big $$$ on what he sees as the cause, and I don't trust him or anything he says, he is a major BS artist and always was and will be... Even the heads of the UN are in on the money scam and that is based of known facts about their actions in the money making.

The 'warmist' are working hard to deny Freedom od Speech to anyone that disagrees with the UN ways of thinking.  The biggest problem I see from their deal (not to even mention the fudging of data) is their 'plan' will keep all the 3rd world Countries to remain in the hole they are already in, poor and slaves to the richer Countries.

As for speech... why the hell do the Algore types need to shutup the people that disagree with them???  If they were so sure they are right then they wouldn't need to shut down all comments against what they are doing?  And to use State AG's to do the closing of comments?  That to me proves they are trying to pull the wool over our eyes.  The people of the US are NOT stupid, they know what is going down and the only way Algore could win this is to become a dictator over the people.. and that will never happen.

These 'climate scientist' (so called) maintain that if you want to comment for or against this climate change deal they have set up, you need to have a PHD in Climate Science.  Well I want to see Algore's PHD in CS...  he doesn't have one...  to me he is nothing more that a divinity school drop out and on top of that he and his family lived large on their cigarette and oil company profits.  Once again it proves if you go along with them, anyone can comment  pro climate change but those that would like to say 'no' need the PHD... 

I praise President Duterte of the Philippines when he said he had no plans to even try to follow the rules the UN put forward (eventho former President Aquino signed on to the UN farce). The people of the Philippines and other Countries have a right to make for a better life for their people. And if you think China is going to play by the UN rules... well you are living a a very weird state of mind.  BTW, China burns more coal and has stock piled more coal (hard and soft) than any other Country in the world and they plan to use every bit of that coal.

I was sitting on the fence on this UN climate change deal until I read about the what the Algore types were trying to do...  deny freedom of speech to any group of people in this Country is just evil...  Not to mention against our rights as US citizens to freedom of speech.  This Country is based on debate, for and against and to try to use the State AG's power against any group of people from using this freedom of speech that is a clear violation and abuse of power by these State AG's and they need to be removed from office.  Debate...  Algore claims to be a great debater... well I will give him that... he is a Master Debater for sure...  BTW, science is based on facts and the fact is this climate change issue it NOT a theory because it can't be proven by experiment... not even once can it be proven by experiment, that's how science works... this isn't science, it's a carnival show and algore is selling the 'cure'...  buy his 'carbon credits and you will feel so much better in the morning...  BS...

Sorry folks for going on about this but whenever the rights of the people are threatened I get pissed...  let algore's army of State AG's try to shut me up...
73 Vince
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Offline MDK2

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I'll take the scientific consensus, thanks. Nobody can yet show that it's being manipulated the way opponents say it is. But this article is cause for hope.

That's all I'll say about this, as I prefer non-political sites to remain that way.
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Offline ff

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That's all I'll say about this, as I prefer non-political sites to remain that way.

Non-political maybe.  But pirate radio itself is one of the last bastions of non-PC absolutely free speech whatever form it may take.  And this site will hopefully always reflect that.  If the thought police get too overbearing around here then it will be a sad day...
Hailing from the upstate boondocks region of the progressive paradise which once was New York State

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While I don't care for politics, I have had to deal with a lot of crazies and their fallout.  Sometimes that leads to unpleasant discoveries about what happens in the world, a look behind the curtain at something that once you see it you can't unsee it.  One of the things I've seen is the amazing control that crazy people have over otherwise sane individuals.  Many of the symptoms of certain types of mental illness or brain damage are very similar or identical to highly successful techniques of persuasion.  A crazy person can sound very sure of themselves while spouting word salad, but what somebody unfamiliar with what the crazy is talking about hears is someone talking confidently about a very complex subject.  For example:  Someone who believes that a cubical quad antenna can only be the work of extra-terrestrials who use it and other antennas to beam energy into the world energy grid to keep the UFOs up in the air.  Furthermore, he believes the world energy grid is laid out using the fundamental constant of the universe which is the nautical mile.  This person may actually talk a reporter into accompanying him when he stalks and photographs a cubical quad antenna and later imagines all sorts of failed attempts to steal the photos.  By the time this is filtered through the media this person will have a book deal and be on TV talking knowingly about the world energy grid.

http://www.metafilter.com/159676/Lets-hope-theyre-friendly

Offline Pigmeat

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Jimmy Swaggart would still be screaming at pedestrians from the hood of his car in the streets of Memphis if wasn't for people like that. A fraud and a loony has the right to make living, too!

We got stuck with crap from previous generations, as did the ones before us. Future generations are going to face the same dilemma and sadly do the same to the next. It's the way human societies seem to function. Just because humans can think rationally doesn't mean they will act rationally. There are certain hardwired behaviors that seem to contradict rational action on a large scale. We're still very much a bipedal ape reacting to the signs and sounds associated with potential danger on the savanna. We're set up to survive for the now, the future is an abstraction to be dealt with when it arrives. If you stopped to think "Is that a leopard I hear?" instead of reacting automatically, you're going to be cat food very soon, due to that reflection. Concentrating and reacting on the now is instinctual for humans, we'd still be hiding in the trees otherwise. It's one thing that makes propaganda so effective, that concentration on the now, trusting your gut, and reacting to it, makes it damned easy for a guy in the know to fool you. Salesmen, shamans, advertisers, con men, religious and political leaders all know how to work it well.

In other words, we're a bunch of boobs. You're either a wise guy or a chump in this world. And no one is thinking beyond, "What can I get now?" And people call me a cynic and a skeptic? I'm just misunderstood, I tell ya.

Offline ka1iic

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If anyone is interested in the real causes of Climate Change I will refer you to the following and you should go to your library for more indepth information.

Chaos theory

Chaos theory is the field of study in mathematics that studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—a response popularly referred to as the butterfly effect.[1] Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.[2] This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved.[3] In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable.[4][5] This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos. The theory was summarized by Edward Lorenz as:[6]

    Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.

Chaotic behavior exists in many natural systems, such as weather and climate.[7][8] It also occurs spontaneously in some systems with artificial components, such as road traffic.[9] This behavior can be studied through analysis of a chaotic mathematical model, or through analytical techniques such as recurrence plots and Poincaré maps. Chaos theory has applications in several disciplines, including meteorology, sociology, physics, environmental science, computer science, engineering, economics, biology, ecology, and philosophy.

for more about the above see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

Have a great day and a better tomorrow!  ;D
73 Vince
KA1IIC

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Offline BoomboxDX

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Re: Solar physicist sees global cooling ahead (propagation and Sun spots )
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2016, 1519 UTC »
I'm still on the fence about the real causes of global warming. I don't doubt that CO2 is a contributor. But so is the sun.

There's a scientists' website (pro- manmade global warming) that I read periodically that has convinced me that something is happening and it's related to CO2, but I'm not 100% convinced as of yet. One reason is the fact that in the 900's Greenland was much more habitable and had a Viking colony living there for 400 years. Even with the global warming extant now, Greenland is nowhere as habitable as is was in 900 AD.

There weren't many coal plants or automobiles in 900 AD.

They say the Medieval warming was because of solar activity and less volcanic activity.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

Obviously there is something amuck, and it involves CO2. But will it kill us all off? The natural state of the Earth is to be in an Ice Age. Human civilization happened to develop during an interglacial period. If CO2 indeed warms the Earth up, it may counter the Earth's tendency back towards cooling.

How this will all play out?  Probably none of us here will live long enough to see the result.

RE: Original post. Great article. Thanks for posting it.
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