I think (hope) within the next decade the cultural meme that 'digital' will be the answer to everyone's prayers will be revealed for the backwards, simulacra-of-19th-century-industrial-revolution-foolhardyness it is. As a perfect parallel to AM radio, see what's happening in the movie industry right now: "the big players" have decided it will be better for them to save like, maybe a few pennies per ticket, not to have to ship 35mm film around, (and thus, they hope, stave off the downward spiraling ticket sales)...and because everyone's eyes glaze over at the great god-word "digital", a large percentage of theater owners (and hence public, voting by paying the higher ticket prices) fall in lock step for this massive conversion to expensive, guaranteed-obosolete-in-a-few-years, digital projectors. Like AM, the quality of 35mm film duplication has taken such a nose-dive in the last twenty years to the point where digital actually does offer an "improvement". Like the noise on the AM band, shaky, unsharp 35mm prints are not the normal state of the technology, but the result of years of rushing and trying to save a buck. (To me that's the perfect definition of insanity--an industry that spends upwards of 100-200 mil. on a blockbuster then skimps on the end product.)
Some of these cinema conversion agents' contracts demand the outright scrapping of thousands of perfectly good, tried and true, mostly American-made film projectors, some of them still ticking like the proverbial Swiss watch after 30, 40, 50 years with little more than regular grease jobs. But I'm already hearing this wholesale conversion is neither whole, not will it be, thank god for Latin America, Eastern Europe, India and those few hundred or so independently owned drive-ins and small town theaters--businesses for whom even an expense of a few thousand dollars might mean closing the doors for good (the current price of 'digital conversion' is around $75,000-$100,000 per screen.)
The "fuzzy logic" in all this that somehow this New Era of digital will magically enliven an industry so laden with corporate bureaucracy, downtrodden by the tyranny of 'focus groups' and plain old fear of saying/doing/believing the 'wrong thing' and losing one's job (from CEOs on down), the chances of even one millisecond of actual creativity making it onto a screen are next to zero. And I won't even go too deeply into the aesthetic loss, why I personally regard AM radio and 35mm motion picture film to be wonderful mediums that CAN (if given a chance) speak to the soul, despite their not "matching up" to the "numbers" that digital possesses in test situations (frequency response/resolution and so on.) All I can add is that I firmly believe analog sound and image do speak very CLEARLY to the human 'quirks' of perception (their strongest subtleties in the same 'alpha'-range of hearing and vision we have evolved to favor for survival).
Of course where the comparison of cinema diverges is that in AM radio, the onus of forced obsolescence is on the individual--how crazy are they to think all the (billions?) of analog AM radios will just go away? And even more crazy, that they'd be replaced? For what? To listen to stuff that's already streaming on the web? (I mean, I'm guessing that, like me, probably something like 1/4 of AM listeners only listen because they collect and admire vintage technology--not just the end-users' hardware, but the whole package--DX propagation and sound peculiarities too.)
The above thoughts aren't even on the table for most, including those so-called industry 'leaders', but in plain language it doesn't make a stitch of difference for either media, whether its IBOC, DRM, Digital Cinema, or analog, when the system won't allow for any creativity in programming. Our biggest enemy is an industry walled off from creative individuals, saddled with spectacular costs, and those in control clinging tight to the foregone conclusion that they've been-there-done-that and there's no point in trying. And maybe they're partly right, for fragmentation really is the new order, and AM radio will never be so important as it was in the last century (same for movies). But it also doesn't have to be a graveyard. I wonder when, or if, people will tire of living life as the walking dead. Even if you are not passionate about radio, film or anything, and its 'just a job', what kind of life, (and larger culture) do you want to have?