Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years?

[ka1iic]

Another one... here's the first paragraph or so:



[
1
]  Predicting the peak amplitude of the sunspot cycle is a
key goal of solar-terrestrial physics. The precursor method
currently favored for such predictions is based on the
dynamo model in which large-scale polar fields on the
decline of the 11-year solar cycle are converted to toroidal
(sunspot) fields during the subsequent cycle


The rest of the document will be found here:

http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf

Enjoy

[ChrisSmolinski]

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/09/how-consensus-science-blew-the-solar-cycle-24-prediction-which-turned-out-to-be-the-lowest-in-100-years/

[ka1iic]

Thanks Chris... :-)

Some time someone should write up a short blurb on propagation conditions from the view point of folks like we SWL'ers.

It's all well and good that the Government does these studies but what the hell are the good of them?

I know computers...  I've worked with some big ones IBM360 etc, I know how they are limited and you can't get a good working model without all of the variables... can't happen, but these reports toss out so many known variables it isn't funny... not to mention the unknown variables.

Something like the Sun, weather and climate just don't work well with computer models... I know because I've been there... no joke...

Point is, I am sick and tired of these jackasses that think computer models are the be all and end all of everything.  Have these people ever studied 'rounding errors'...  In science your best guess might work and often does but is it correct enough to make the computer models work right?  I think not, in fact I know not...

<sigh>  I'm tired... to hell with it...

[MDK2]

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/09/how-consensus-science-blew-the-solar-cycle-24-prediction-which-turned-out-to-be-the-lowest-in-100-years/

My, my. Someone has an ax to grind, don't they? One prediction is wrong, therefore we can throw out any and every consensus finding on anything. Well, at least we can with the ones we have personal disagreements with.

[Pigmeat]

This is why you never believe anyone without the "Fansome Seal Of Approval".

For a mere five thousand dollars one can be yours. Contact me via PM with your credit card numbers, credit ratings, bank account info and Social Security number and I'll do the rest. If you qualify, you're on your way to being an expert on the subject of your choice. It's much cheaper the Trump U. and ITT Tech, and more respected.

I suggest pro wrestling. Al knows more about pro wrestling than any man alive.

[Fansome]

Yep. Gorgeous George used to live just down the road from where I grew up.

This is why you never believe anyone without the "Fansome Seal Of Approval".

For a mere five thousand dollars one can be yours. Contact me via PM with your credit card numbers, credit ratings, bank account info and Social Security number and I'll do the rest. If you qualify, you're on your way to being an expert on the subject of your choice. It's much cheaper the Trump U. and ITT Tech, and more respected.

I suggest pro wrestling. Al knows more about pro wrestling than any man alive.

[ka1iic]

So where does this leave me?

I'm a graduate of T.I.T. aka The "Timtron Institute of Technology"

And I belong to the " I Felta Thigh" frat...

It's not like I...

Damn I forgot what I was going to say...

Sorry...

<sigh>